Pokémon Scarlet & Violet Pull Rates Compared: Every Set Ranked
All 11 Scarlet & Violet sets ranked by packs per Special Illustration Rare, plus hits per box and what an SIR costs at MSRP vs. today's market price.
Every Scarlet & Violet set we’ve broken down, side by side. Pull rates are community estimates from Poké EV’s open pull-rate dataset (CC BY 4.0), since Pokémon doesn’t publish official odds. Each set name links to its full breakdown.
Packs per Special Illustration Rare, ranked
Fewer packs means an easier SIR. Special sets are sold as ETBs, main sets as 36-pack booster boxes.
- Special set
- Main set
- 151 1 in 32
- Prismatic Evolutions 1 in 45
- Paradox Rift 1 in 47
- Paldean Fates 1 in 58
- Shrouded Fable 1 in 67
- Journey Together 1 in 86
- Temporal Forces 1 in 86
- Twilight Masquerade 1 in 86
- Surging Sparks 1 in 87
- Stellar Crown 1 in 90
- Destined Rivals 1 in 94
Community estimates from Poké EV. Averages across many packs; any single box can beat or miss them.
Two patterns stand out. Most main sets land in a tight band of 1 in 86 to 1 in 94 packs, but Paradox Rift is the outlier at about 1 in 47, almost twice as generous. And the special sets (151, Prismatic Evolutions, Paldean Fates, Shrouded Fable) mostly beat the main sets, led by 151 at 1 in 32.
What an SIR costs: MSRP vs. today’s market
Box price divided by the expected SIRs in that box. Better odds don’t always mean a cheaper chase: sealed 151 and Paldean Fates ETBs now sell for roughly 9 to 10 times MSRP, which wipes out their pull-rate advantage.
- MSRP
- Market price
MSRP: $161.64 Pokémon Center booster box or $49.99 standard ETB. Market: regular-product prices from each set's breakdown, checked Oct 7-14, 2026.
At MSRP, the special sets are the cheap SIR hunt. At market, the order flips: a Paradox Rift booster box is the cheapest way to an expected SIR, and Paldean Fates is by far the most expensive.
Every set at a glance
| Set | Year | Type | Product | Hits per product | SIR | Hyper Rare | $ per SIR (MSRP) | $ per SIR (market) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 151 | 2023 | Special set | ETB | 2.9 | 1 in 32 | 1 in 51 | $178 | $1,811 |
| Prismatic Evolutions | 2025 | Special set | ETB | 2.9 | 1 in 45 | 1 in 80 | $250 | $646 |
| Paradox Rift | 2023 | Main set | Booster Box | 12.4 | 1 in 47 | 1 in 82 | $211 | $371 |
| Paldean Fates | 2024 | Special set | ETB | 3.4 | 1 in 58 | 1 in 62 | $322 | $2,815 |
| Shrouded Fable | 2024 | Special set | ETB | 3.5 | 1 in 67 | 1 in 144 | $372 | $818 |
| Journey Together | 2025 | Main set | Booster Box | 13.3 | 1 in 86 | 1 in 137 | $386 | $577 |
| Temporal Forces | 2024 | Main set | Booster Box | 13.6 | 1 in 86 | 1 in 139 | $386 | $764 |
| Twilight Masquerade | 2024 | Main set | Booster Box | 13.6 | 1 in 86 | 1 in 146 | $386 | $815 |
| Surging Sparks | 2024 | Main set | Booster Box | 13.6 | 1 in 87 | 1 in 188 | $391 | $728 |
| Stellar Crown | 2024 | Main set | Booster Box | 13.6 | 1 in 90 | 1 in 137 | $404 | $757 |
| Destined Rivals | 2025 | Main set | Booster Box | 13.1 | 1 in 94 | 1 in 149 | $422 | $1,063 |
Hits are ex or better (Double Rare and up, including ACE SPEC where the set has them).
Caveats
- No official pull rates exist for Pokémon. These are community estimates, and Shrouded Fable’s are lower-confidence than the rest.
- Every number is an average across many packs, not a promise about any single box.
- Market prices are asks and recent-sales snapshots that move; see each set’s page for its price source and date.
- Nothing here is a buy or sell recommendation.
Sources
- Pull rates: Poké EV, Pokémon TCG pull rates (CC BY 4.0)
- Market prices: each set’s breakdown (PriceCharting and the sources listed there)
- Product images: The Pokémon Company
