Pokémon Surging Sparks Pull Rates: What a Booster Box Delivers
Pokémon Surging Sparks pull rates: expected hits per booster box, packs per Special Illustration Rare, and cost per chase card at MSRP vs. market.
Pokémon doesn’t publish official pull rates, so everything below is community-sourced: public pack-opening samples combined in Poké EV’s open pull-rate dataset (CC BY 4.0). Confidence for Surging Sparks: high. Surging Sparks released 2024-11-08. Every number is an average across many packs, so any single box can do better or worse.
See how every Scarlet & Violet set compares: all 11 sets ranked by pull rate and cost per SIR →
What the data covers
| Product | Packs | Cards per pack |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Box | 36 | 10 |
| ETB | 9 | 10 |
Rates are per pack; per-box figures multiply them by the packs in each product.
Expected pulls per box
| Rarity | 1 in N packs | Per Booster Box | Per ETB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare (non-holo) | 1 in 1.3 | 27.60 | 6.90 |
| Double Rare (Pokemon ex) | 1 in 6.0 | 6.00 | 1.50 |
| Illustration Rare | 1 in 13.0 | 2.77 | 0.69 |
| Ultra Rare | 1 in 15.0 | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1 in 87.0 | 0.41 | 0.10 |
| Hyper Rare (gold) | 1 in 188.0 | 0.19 | 0.05 |
| ACE SPEC Rare | 1 in 20.0 | 1.80 | 0.45 |
| Any hit (ex or better) | 13.57 | 3.39 |
Cost per chase
Price divided by the expected number of cards. Prices are MSRP or market asks, not completed sales, and they move.
- MSRP
- Market price
Average cost per card of each chase rarity. Most single boxes won't contain a Special Illustration Rare or Hyper Rare at all.
| Product | At MSRP | At market price |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Box | $161.64 · $11.91/hit · $391/SIR | $301.08 · $22.18/hit · $728/SIR |
| ETB | $49.99 · $14.73/hit · $483/SIR | n/a |
MSRP: Booster Box $161.64 (Pokémon Center price); ETB $49.99 (standard ETB MSRP). Booster Box market price: $301.08 (pokefocus, Oct 10, 2026).
Notes and caveats
- Pikachu ex SIR carried this set to era-defining status.
- No official pull rates exist for Pokémon; all rates are community estimates, labeled with Poké EV’s confidence level.
- These are averages across many packs. A single box can beat or miss every number on this page.
- Nothing here is a buy or sell recommendation. It’s the math behind the community data.
Sources
- Pull rates: Poké EV, Pokémon TCG pull rates (CC BY 4.0)
- tcgplayer.com
- pokepatch.com
