Pokémon Paldean Fates Pull Rates: What an ETB Delivers
Pokémon Paldean Fates pull rates: expected hits per ETB, packs per Special Illustration Rare, and cost per chase card at MSRP vs. market.
Pokémon doesn’t publish official pull rates, so everything below is community-sourced: public pack-opening samples combined in Poké EV’s open pull-rate dataset (CC BY 4.0). Confidence for Paldean Fates: high. Paldean Fates released 2024-01-26. Every number is an average across many packs, so any single box can do better or worse.
See how every Scarlet & Violet set compares: all 11 sets ranked by pull rate and cost per SIR →
What the data covers
| Product | Packs | Cards per pack |
|---|---|---|
| ETB | 9 | 10 |
Rates are per pack; per-box figures multiply them by the packs in each product.
Expected pulls per box
| Rarity | 1 in N packs | Per ETB |
|---|---|---|
| Rare (non-holo) | 1 in 1.4 | 6.58 |
| Double Rare (Pokemon ex) | 1 in 8.0 | 1.12 |
| Illustration Rare | 1 in 14.0 | 0.64 |
| Ultra Rare | 1 in 15.0 | 0.60 |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1 in 58.0 | 0.16 |
| Hyper Rare (gold) | 1 in 62.0 | 0.15 |
| Shiny Rare | 1 in 4.0 | 2.25 |
| Shiny Ultra Rare | 1 in 13.0 | 0.69 |
| Any hit (ex or better) | 3.36 |
Cost per chase
Price divided by the expected number of cards. Prices are MSRP or market asks, not completed sales, and they move.
- MSRP
- Market price
Average cost per card of each chase rarity. Most single boxes won't contain a Special Illustration Rare or Hyper Rare at all.
| Product | At MSRP | At market price |
|---|---|---|
| ETB | $49.99 · $14.88/hit · $322/SIR | $436.80 · $130/hit · $2,815/SIR |
MSRP: ETB $49.99 (standard ETB MSRP). ETB market price: $436.80 (PriceCharting regular ETB, Oct 14, 2026).
Notes and caveats
- Special set: no booster boxes. ETB modeled; Shiny Rare and Shiny Ultra Rare tiers carry the chase.
- Market price uses the regular ETB ($436.80); the Pokémon Center-exclusive ETB sells for about $548 (PriceCharting, Oct 14).
- No official pull rates exist for Pokémon; all rates are community estimates, labeled with Poké EV’s confidence level.
- These are averages across many packs. A single box can beat or miss every number on this page.
- Nothing here is a buy or sell recommendation. It’s the math behind the community data.
Sources
- Pull rates: Poké EV, Pokémon TCG pull rates (CC BY 4.0)
- tcgplayer.com
- pokebeach.com
- digitaltq.com
- Market price: PriceCharting
