2026 Topps Update Odds: What a Hit Really Costs
We rebuilt 2026 Topps Update hits per box from the odds sheet alone, then priced each auto and relic. Hobby and Jumbo, with caveats.
Here’s the question I wanted answered: can you work out your own odds from nothing but the Topps odds sheet? For 2026 Topps Update, yes. The per-box numbers come out the same as the ones SlabSquatch (@WaxMetrix on X) posts. The set releases October 14, 2026, per Checklist Insider. Then I put box prices on top to see what an expected auto or relic costs.
Where the numbers come from
Method: for every row on the odds sheet, boxes get packs per box / odds denominator. Add up the rows in each class. Hobby is 20 packs per box, Jumbo is 10.
Source caveat, up front: I could not get Topps’ own PDF. The sheet I used is a third-party transcription (dugoutvault.app). Its Hobby and Jumbo columns reproduce SlabSquatch’s numbers, which is a good cross-check, but it is not a check against Topps itself. Grouping rows into autograph, auto-relic and relic is my own, by card name. The sheet doesn’t label them that way.
Expected hits per box
| Class | Hobby (per box) | Jumbo (per box) |
|---|---|---|
| Autograph (no relic) | 0.320 | 0.894 |
| Auto-relic | 0.030 | 0.114 |
| All autographs (incl. auto-relics) | 0.350 | 1.008 |
| Relics (non-auto) | 0.662 | 1.546 |
| Any hit (auto or relic) | 1.01 | 2.55 |
| Base parallels | 4.26 | 10.52 |
| Variations / SPs | 0.22 | 0.41 |
| Inserts | 16.90 | 30.17 |
Topps’ box guide says Hobby gets 1 auto or relic, and Jumbo gets 1 auto and 1 relic. Hobby lines up (1.01). Jumbo’s sheet average is 2.55 against a stated 2. My guess is that the guide states a minimum and the pack odds add extra relics on top. SlabSquatch reaches the same 2.55, expects the extras to be mostly relics, and notes that Jumbo Silver Packs aren’t on the odds sheet at all, so they’d add hits beyond this count.
Averages, not promises. At 0.32 plain autos per Hobby box, roughly 7 in 10 Hobby boxes have no plain auto.
Does it match SlabSquatch?
| Metric | Format | Rebuilt from sheet | SlabSquatch states | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Autos per box | Hobby | 0.350 | 0.35 | 0.0003 |
| Relics per box | Hobby | 0.662 | 0.66 | 0.002 |
| Autos per box | Jumbo | 1.008 | 1 | 0.008 |
| Relics per box | Jumbo | 1.546 | 1.55 | -0.004 |
All four land within 0.01. The small gaps are rounding, since the sheet’s odds are whole numbers like 1:92. His numbers are his own figures from the odds sheet, not Topps-verified, taken from his X thread (checked October 10):
View this post on X
Posted by @WaxMetrix (SlabSquatch) · View on X →
He also quotes box counts of 102,900 Hobby and 48,650 Jumbo. Those aren’t on the odds sheet, so I didn’t rebuild them.
Cost per expected hit
Formula: box price divided by expected cards per box. It’s an average over many boxes, not what any one box will cost you. No resale value is modeled.
Price scenarios (all asking or presale prices, not completed sales):
| Scenario | Hobby box | Jumbo box | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Topps presale (now sold out) | $109.99 | $310.00 | Hobby: Topps presale Sep 14, per Checklist Insider. Jumbo: reported by shopcardhub.com. Topps.com showed all formats sold out Oct 10 |
| B. Dealer presell, typical | $199.95 | $374.95 | Hobby: Steel City, DA Card World. Jumbo: waxstat, Mojobreak. Read Oct 10 |
| C. Low eBay ask | $172.94 | $315.00 | Lowest eBay asks, Oct 9 (shopcardhub.com) |
- Topps presale
- Dealer presell
- Lowest eBay ask
Box price divided by expected cards per box. Averages over many boxes; asking or presale prices as of Oct 10, 2026.
| Expected card | Format | Per box | A: Topps presale | B: Dealer presell | C: Low ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any auto (incl. auto-relics) | Hobby | 0.350 | $314 | $571 | $494 |
| Any auto (incl. auto-relics) | Jumbo | 1.008 | $307 | $372 | $312 |
| Relic (non-auto) | Hobby | 0.662 | $166 | $302 | $261 |
| Relic (non-auto) | Jumbo | 1.546 | $201 | $243 | $204 |
| Any hit (auto or relic) | Hobby | 1.01 | $109 | $197 | $171 |
| Any hit (auto or relic) | Jumbo | 2.55 | $121 | $147 | $123 |
Jumbo “any hit” uses the sheet’s 2.55 per box. Under the guide’s 2 guaranteed hits, divide the box price by 2 instead.
What the sheet can’t tell you
- Production volume. How many boxes exist isn’t on the sheet, so print-run totals can’t be rebuilt from it.
- Serial numbering. Things like /50 or /10 aren’t on the sheet either.
- Value box. SlabSquatch cites 1 auto per 36 Value boxes. That comes from a Value column my source doesn’t publish, so I didn’t test it.
- Rounding. Odds are whole numbers, so every rate carries a small error.
- Averages. Expected values across many boxes, not a guaranteed pull.
Bottom line
For Update, a sheet-only model reproduces the per-box hit rates SlabSquatch publishes, and prices turn that into a cost per expected hit. The model stops at what’s printed on the sheet: no production totals, no serial numbers, no promises on any single box.
Odds are derived from a third-party transcription of the Topps odds sheet. Prices are asking or presale prices as of Oct 10, 2026 and will move. Nothing here is a guaranteed pull.
